As a lifelong NFL analyst who’s spent more than a decade breaking down game tape and organizational trends, I’ve come to appreciate that the Dallas Cowboys’ challenges this season aren’t just about talent—they’re about identity. Watching them navigate this year feels a bit like studying two MLB matchups I’ve been tracking closely: Athletics at Pirates and Braves at Tigers. Both baseball games offer a fascinating parallel to the Cowboys’ situation, especially when you consider how situational execution and roster depth can define outcomes in any sport. Let’s be honest—the Cowboys have the star power. They’ve got Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons, names that sell jerseys and light up highlight reels. But as any seasoned observer knows, star power alone doesn’t win championships. It’s the unglamorous, often overlooked elements—like situational hitting in baseball or red-zone efficiency in football—that separate contenders from pretenders.
Take the Athletics-Pirates game, for instance. The storyline there revolves around a veteran pitcher like Severino facing a lineup full of question marks. That’s not unlike what the Cowboys face when they go up against disciplined, well-coached teams. Severino’s polish and experience allow him to exploit weaknesses, much like how opposing defenses have sometimes dissected Dallas’s offensive schemes when the game is on the line. I’ve noticed that in high-leverage moments—third-and-medium or inside the opponent’s 20-yard line—the Cowboys have occasionally faltered, converting only around 38% of those critical downs last season. That’s a stat that keeps coaches up at night. It reminds me of how bullpen depth in baseball can make or break a close game; if your relievers can’t hold a lead, all the early scoring doesn’t matter. For the Cowboys, their "bullpen" might be the offensive line or secondary depth—areas where injuries or fatigue have cost them dearly in past seasons. I’ve always believed that building a roster isn’t just about the starters; it’s about having reliable options off the bench, something the Braves-Tigers matchup highlights with its focus on starter length and timely defense.
Speaking of the Braves and Tigers, that game underscores how momentum can swing on a single play—a diving catch, a double-play turn, or a starter grinding through six innings to save the bullpen. In football terms, that’s equivalent to the Cowboys’ defense generating a timely turnover or the offensive line giving Prescott an extra second on a crucial drive. Last season, Dallas ranked in the top 10 in time of possession, yet they struggled to close out games where they led by a score or less. It’s frustrating to watch, because as a fan, you see the potential. I remember one game where they dominated statistically but lost because of a single special teams breakdown. That’s where managerial chess comes into play, much like it does in baseball. Mike McCarthy and his staff need to anticipate those momentum shifts better. For example, in the Braves-Tigers game, if Elder can’t go deep, the Tigers’ bullpen has to step up—and that’s a lot like when the Cowboys’ defense has to compensate for an offense that’s sputtering. Personally, I think McCarthy has improved in this area, but he still tends to be too conservative in key moments. I’d love to see more aggressive play-calling, like going for it on fourth down in opponent territory, which data shows increases win probability by roughly 12% in certain scenarios.
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: consistency. The Cowboys have been labeled as "inconsistent" for years, and it’s a fair criticism. In the Athletics-Pirates preview, situational hitting is highlighted—that ability to deliver with runners in scoring position. For Dallas, that translates to performing in the playoffs or against division rivals. Over the last three seasons, they’ve averaged 11 wins in the regular season but have only two playoff victories to show for it. That’s a disconnect that can’t be ignored. From my perspective, part of the issue is mental toughness. I’ve spoken with players who’ve said the pressure in Dallas is unlike anywhere else, and it can lead to tight performances when it matters most. Compare that to the Pirates, who might lack star power but can surprise you with clutch at-bats. The Cowboys need to adopt that underdog mentality sometimes, even though they’re always in the spotlight. It’s about embracing the grind, much like a baseball team playing 162 games—you can’t get too high or too low.
Another challenge is roster construction, particularly depth. In the MLB examples, bullpen depth and defensive versatility are recurring themes. For the Cowboys, injuries have exposed their lack of depth at positions like linebacker and offensive tackle. Last year, when Tyron Smith went down, the offense noticeably struggled, and Prescott’s sack rate jumped to nearly 7% in those games. That’s where the front office needs to focus—not just on big-name signings, but on developing role players. I’ve always been a proponent of drafting for versatility, much like how baseball teams value utility players. If the Cowboys can find a couple of gems in the mid-rounds who can contribute on special teams and fill in as starters, it would alleviate so much pressure. For instance, if they had a reliable third-down back who could also pass protect, it would open up the playbook immensely. I’d estimate that adding one or two such players could improve their red-zone efficiency by at least 15%, based on similar adjustments I’ve seen in other teams.
Looking ahead, the path to overcoming these challenges isn’t rocket science, but it requires discipline and a bit of luck. The Cowboys must prioritize situational practice—drilling those third-down and red-zone scenarios until they become second nature. They also need to trust their young talent more; I’m thinking of players like Sam Williams on defense, who has shown flashes but needs consistent snaps. And let’s not forget leadership. In baseball, a veteran pitcher like Severino can calm a team down, and the Cowboys could benefit from a few more vocal leaders in the locker room. Ultimately, if they can tighten up those key areas—much like how the Braves rely on timely defense—they have the talent to make a deep playoff run. As someone who’s watched this team for years, I’m cautiously optimistic. But as the old saying goes, potential doesn’t win games—execution does. And for the Cowboys, that execution will define their season, just as it will in those MLB matchups I’ll be watching tomorrow.
